Drought forecasts based on forecasted gridded soil moisture time series (EFAS, IFS-SEAS) for the whole of Europe and at regional scale. Two approaches are used, that is the anomaly approach (European Drought Observatory, EDO) and the threshold level method (TLM).
The European Drought Observatory (EDO) provides the soil moisture for the current day and the 7-day forecasted soil moisture every day across Europe.
The TLM forecasts the onset, duration, and severity (deficit volume) of the drought in soil moisture in probabilistic terms. The drought occurs when the soil moisture is below the threshold. The TLM also provides the total drought affected area. The total area affected by drought is given for each day up to 215 days ahead. The probabilistic forecasts are presented as 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile of the 51 ensemble members.