Most probable precipitation type

Based on the IFS atmospheric model ensemble with 1 control and 50 perturbed forecasts, the most probable precipitation type describes which type of precipitation (rain, sleet, wet snow, snow, freezing rain or ice pellets) is more probable whenever the probability of some precipitation is >50%.

Description & Technical Information

Description

The most probable precipitation type product is a secondary product from the probability of precipitation type algorithm that calculate which of the six precipitation types (rain, sleet, wet snow, snow, freezing rain and ice pellets) is most probable whenever the probability of some precipitation is >50%.

Also, the most probable precipitation type is classified in three different ranges of probabilities: up to 50%, from 50 to 70% and higher than 70%. In order to give more useful information to the users, with probability of precipitation less than 50% the product stablish other two categories (grey colours) when the probability of any type of precipitation is between 10-30% and 30-50% giving, in this case, only information about the probability of occurrence of precipitation/no precipitation.

One grib file is provided per each time step.

Expressed in integers: from 1 to 18:

  • 1: most probable is rain with probability <50%
  • 2: most probable is rain with probability 50-70%
  • 3: most probable is rain with probability >70%
  • 4: most probable is sleet with probability <50%
  • 5: most probable is sleet with probability 50-70%
  • 6: most probable is sleet with probability >70%
  • 7: most probable is wet snow with probability <50%
  • 8: most probable is wet snow with probability 50-70%
  • 9: most probable is wet snow with probability >70%
  • 10: most probable is snow with probability <50%
  • 11: most probable is snow with probability 50-70%
  • 12: most probable is snow with probability >70%
  • 13: most probable is ice pellets with probability <50%
  • 14: most probable is ice pellets with probability 50-70%
  • 15: most probable is ice pellets with probability >70%
  • 16: most probable is freezing rain with probability <50%
  • 17: most probable is freezing rain with probability 50-70%
  • 18: most probable is freezing rain with probability >70%
  • 19: probability of total precipitation between 10-30%
  • 20: probability of total precipitation between 30-50%

Technical information

Hazard , ,
Coverage Global
Horizon 6 days
Time Resolution 3-hourly up to 144 h lead time
Spatial Resolution 0.2° x 0.2° lat/lon grid (~18 km)
Update Updated twice a day following either the 00 UTC or the 12 UTC ECMWF forecast release
Nature Raster Maps
Availability , , ,

Model or Algorithm