Wind gust probability

Wind gust probability above a given threshold.

Description & Technical Information


The wind gust probability is a variable of ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). It measures the maximum wind gusts exceeding 15, 20 and 25 m/s (in %) within a 120h time window. The probabilities are based on the number of forecast members which meet the criteria (each member is assigned an equal probability of 1/50). Note that the 10m wind gust is a post-processed product, computed as the sum of three terms: the instantaneous 10m wind speed, turbulent gustiness in the boundary layer and gustiness in convective situations.

Technical information

Hazard ,
Coverage Global
Horizon 15 days
Time Resolution 3-hourly up to 144 h lead time.
Spatial Resolution O640, ~18 km [ENS]
Update Twice a day following either the 00 UTC or the 12 UTC ECMWF
Nature Raster Maps
Availability , , , ,

Model or Algorithm